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大陆个人养老账户为空帐 养老金支付将面临危机

据《21世纪经济报道》报导,因大陆老龄化加快,每年达到退休年龄的新增人口近千万,而劳动年龄人口每年却以三四百万速度下降。

The mainland is adding nearly 10 million new people to the retirement age each year as its population ages rapidly, while the working-age population is declining by three to four million annually, the 21st century business herald reported.

据报告测算,目前大陆养老金入不敷出的问题非常突出。

According to the report, the current problem of the mainland's pension income is very prominent.

目前部分省份的养老基金已“不够用”。

Some provinces are running out of pension funds.

2015年,当期收不抵支的省份有6个。

In 2015, there were 6 provinces whose current income did not cover their expenditure.

部分中部省份(如江西、湖北等)和西北地区省份(如甘肃、青海、宁夏)基金当期结余量已经很小,未来2年这些省份会出现收支赤字。

Some central provinces (such as jiangxi, hubei, etc.) and northwest provinces (such as gansu, qinghai, ningxia) have very small fund balance in the current period. In the next two years, these provinces will have a balance deficit.

因为入不敷出,中国当局不得不加大对城镇职工基本养老保险基金的补贴,补贴数额已经从1998年的24亿元(人民币,下同)上升到2017年的8004亿元,增长了333.5倍,20年来各级财政补贴城镇职工基本养老保险的总数额为4.1万亿元。

Due to insufficient income, the CPC authorities have to increase subsidies to the basic endowment insurance fund for urban workers. The amount of subsidies has increased from 2.4 billion yuan in 1998 to 80.4 billion yuan in 2017, an increase of 333.5 times. In the past 20 years, the total amount of subsidies to the basic endowment insurance for urban workers at all levels has been 4.1 trillion yuan.

按照以往的增速计算,2019年各级财政补贴规模将达到1万亿以上,此后每年还需增加一两千亿。

Based on the previous growth rate, fiscal subsidies at all levels will reach over 1 trillion yuan in 2019, and another 100 billion or 200 billion yuan will be added annually thereafter.

报告认为,未来各地养老基金入不敷出的问题还会加剧。

The report believes that in the future, pension funds around the problem will be exacerbated.

报告提供的精算结果显示,2018~2022年,养老基金收不抵支的省份数量将维持在13~14个,接近大陆省级统筹单位的一半,这些省份主要分布在东北和中西部地区。

According to the actuarial results provided in the report, the number of provinces where pension fund income cannot cover expenditure will remain at 13 to 14 from 2018 to 2022, nearly half of the mainland's provincial pooling units, mainly in the northeast and central and western regions.

其中个别省份累计结余耗尽的风险加大。

Individual provinces are at increased risk of running out of accumulated balances.

对于养老金入不敷出的原因,社科院报告副主编、首都师范大学管理学院副教授龙玉其认为,中国人口老龄化特点是总量大、速度快、高龄化、未富先老。

Long yuqi, deputy editor of the report of the Chinese academy of social sciences and associate professor of the school of management of capital normal university, believes that China's aging population is characterized by large population, fast speed, aging and getting old before getting rich.

在快速老龄化过程中,中国对养老保障体系的建设、养老服务体系的建设并没有完全做好准备。

In the process of rapid aging, the CPC has not fully prepared for the construction of the pension security system and the pension service system.

其次,《21世纪经济报道》认为,中国财政资金较多地用于促进经济建设支出,对社保和居民福利支出比例太少。

Second, the 21st century business herald argues that the party spends too much on promoting economic development and too little on social security and welfare.

中国社科院副院长高培勇表示,从全口径预算看( 把一般公共预算+政府型基金预算+社会保险基金预算+国有企业经营预算合一),中国经济建设方面财政支出大体占40%,社会福利性支出也大体占40%。

Gao peiyong, vice-president of the Chinese academy of social sciences, said that in terms of the full budget (which combines the general public budget with the government fund budget, the social insurance fund budget and the operating budget of state-owned enterprises), the fiscal expenditure on economic construction accounts for about 40 percent, and the social welfare expenditure also accounts for about 40 percent.

但欧美国家经济建设支出最多不超过20%,剩下60%用于社会福利性支出。

However, the economic construction expenditure of European and American countries shall not exceed 20% at most, and the remaining 60% shall be used for social welfare expenditure.

再有,中国长期实行养老金双轨制也是重要原因。

Moreover, the long-term implementation of the dual pension system is also an important reason.

海外评论人士文小刚表示,养老金双轨制造成了严重不公,政府工作人员养老金交得少,但退休后拿到得多,等于是企业的退休人员在养著退休的公务员等。

Wen xiaogang, an overseas commentator, said the dual pension system had created a serious injustice, with government workers paying less but receiving more after retirement, which amounted to corporate retirees supporting retired civil servants and so on.

虽然目前养老金双轨制已经停止,但其造成的影响不是几年可以消除的。

Although the current dual pension system has stopped, but its impact is not a few years can be eliminated.

按照目前中共的规定,个税、公积金以及社保费加在一起的话,缴费总额达到民众工资的40%或者50%,这对企业和居民均是巨大的负担。

According to the current regulations of the communist party of China, if individual income tax, provident fund and social insurance premium are added together, the total amount of contribution will reach 40% or 50% of people's salary, which is a huge burden on enterprises and residents.

西北大学教授席恒认为,养老缴费比例必须要较大幅度下调,如此才能促进经济平稳增长。

Xi heng, a professor at northwestern university, believes that pension contributions must be significantly reduced to promote steady economic growth.

如果企业负担重,同时经济增速放慢了,则未来养老金收支平衡的压力更大。

If companies are burdened and growth slows, future pension balances will come under greater pressure.


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