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黄奇帆:今年中国经济大船将稳当前行

中新社北京3月20日电 (记者 庞无忌)

Beijing, March 20 (China news service)

中国国际经济交流中心副理事长黄奇帆20日在北京表示,今年中国经济预计将呈现“前低后高”的态势,全年经济增速或在6.4%左右,中国经济大船会稳稳当当向前行进。

China's economy is expected to grow at an annual rate of 6.4 percent this year, huang qifan, deputy director general of the China center for international economic exchanges, said in Beijing on Tuesday.

黄奇帆当日在中国国际经济交流中心召开的“经济每月谈”上作出上述预测。

Huang made the prediction at the monthly economic forum held by the China center for international economic exchanges.

他认为,今年二季度以后,中国经济增速料出现稳中有升态势,这种态势受到三个资金市场以及“三驾马车”共计六大经济要素的支撑。

He believes that after the second quarter of this year, China's economic growth is expected to rise steadily, which is supported by the three capital markets and the "troika" of six economic elements.

从股市、外汇、货币三个资金市场来看,黄奇帆指出,今年中国经济的金融要素是利好的。

From the perspective of the stock market, foreign exchange and money market, huang qifan pointed out that the financial elements of China's economy are positive this year.

A股今年以来出现明显上涨,沪指从去年的2500点上升到今年3月份的3000点左右。

A shares have risen significantly this year, with the Shanghai index rising from 2,500 last year to around 3,000 in March.

黄奇帆指出,股市开局良好,对普通股民来说,可以逐渐“解套”,对股权质押的企业来说,风险缓解,都是好事。

Huang qifan pointed out that the stock market started well, for ordinary shareholders, can gradually "solution set", for the equity pledged enterprises, risk mitigation, is a good thing.

货币市场上,去年四季度以来,官方多措并举,“融资难、融资贵”等情况得到相当程度缓解。

In the money market, since the fourth quarter of last year, the authorities have taken multiple measures to ease the situation of "difficult and expensive financing".

外汇市场上,近月来,美联储缩表力度减弱,人民币贬值压力有所缓解。

In the foreign exchange market, in recent months, the fed has reduced the scale of tightening, the depreciation of the RMB pressure has eased.

此外,黄奇帆指出,消费、投资、进出口“三驾马车”今年以来都见稳,且稳中有升。

In addition, huang qifan pointed out that consumption, investment, import and export "three carriage" since this year has seen steady, and steady rise.

去年12月份,外贸有下行压力,但今年2月如果扣除春节因素,进出口实际增长超过10%。

In December last year, there was downward pressure on foreign trade, but in February this year, excluding the Spring Festival, the actual growth of import and export exceeded 10%.

前两个月中国消费同比增长8.2%,增速与上年12月份持平,走势平稳。

In the first two months, China's consumption grew by 8.2% year-on-year, the same growth rate as in December last year and a stable trend.

投资增长也有趋稳迹象,特别是基础设施投资企稳回升,房地产投资增长较快。

Investment growth has also shown signs of stabilizing. In particular, infrastructure investment has stabilized and rebounded, and real estate investment has grown rapidly.

2018年中国GDP同比增长6.6%。

China's GDP grew by 6.6% year-on-year in 2018.

今年的《政府工作报告》将中国经济增长预期目标定为6%-6.5%之间。

This year's government work report set China's economic growth target at between 6 percent and 6.5 percent.

黄奇帆坦言,今年中国经济的困难大于去年。

Huang admitted that China's economic difficulties this year are greater than last year.

不过,中央提前谋划,采取了“六稳”等措施,对国民经济产生推动。

However, the central government planned ahead and adopted measures such as "six stability measures" to boost the national economy.

特别是当前经济发展的动力大多来源于改革、开放、创新,是用市场化方法展开的而不是依赖于行政性命令。

In particular, the current economic development is mostly driven by reform, opening up and innovation, which is carried out by market-oriented methods rather than relying on administrative orders.

黄奇帆预测,今年一季度,中国经济增速会有所放缓,预计增速在6.3%左右,上半年有可能在6.35%或者6.4%。

Mr. Huang predicted that China's economic growth will slow in the first quarter of this year, with growth expected to be around 6.3% and likely to be 6.35% or 6.4% in the first half.

全年相信会在6.4%左右,中国经济大船会稳稳当当向前行进。

It is believed that this year's GDP will be around 6.4%, and the big ship of China's economy will move forward steadily.


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