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On August 15, 1971, then US President Richard Nixon announced that the us dollar was once again decoupled from gold, and other countries followed suit. Since then, the currency has lost its anchor of gold.


Money has three functions: a store of value, a measure, and a medium of exchange.


From then on, the function of value storage disappeared and entered the era of legal currency.


If we say that under the gold standard, the fact that money supply can't keep up with economic growth is a constraint on economic growth.


In the era of legal currency, the speed of money printing always exceeds the economic growth rate. No government can control the hand of money printing, and the overspeed expansion of credit has become the constraint of economic growth.


In the era of fiat money, the initial stage of money printing actually promoted economic growth, which pushed down interest rates and gave full play to economic potential.


However, as the money supply continues to overshoot, the Keynesian hypothesis becomes a reality. When interest rates are low enough, speculative demand for money explodes, and all the new money is absorbed into the speculative system. No matter how much money is added, no money will enter the real system.


In the gold standard era, the currency would be converted into gold every time there was a slight increase in its value, and the macro monetary policy had very little power.


However, different from the era of legal currency, the macro monetary policy is of great power and most of it is sustainable, which gives speculators a quite clear signal that they will win if they follow the central bank and stimulate them to take bets and buy financial assets in the end.


This should have gone beyond Keynes's assumption, or his belief that interest rates need to be low enough to trigger a liquidity trap.


As a matter of fact, it is the essence of financial bet expectations game, as a result of the macro monetary policy clear expectations for speculators to encourage, when interest rates are relatively high, the incremental currency is already all absorbed by speculative demand, into financial assets, even more than is incremental, speculative since the entity will take stock of money and in solid deflation.


Many of the world's economies, including China's and Japan's, are effectively in a liquidity trap.


When there is a liquidity trap, the more explicit the expectation of the easing policy is, the stronger the intensity will be, which will stimulate the capital flowing into financial assets for speculation, thus actually reducing the amount of real capital, raising the real interest rate and killing the economic potential.


The practical result is that the entity gets worse and worse.


Global financial asset prices have become so entrenched that whenever credit expansion leads to financial risk, central Banks invariably bail them out.


From the founding of the United States to August 2008, it took more than 200 years for the United States to print a total of 830 billion dollars in money. However, by September 2014, the balance sheet of the federal reserve had reached 4.5 trillion dollars.


The boj's assets were less than y160tn in January 2013 and y546bn in January 2018.

2008年1月,中國M2為41.78萬億, 2019年1月,M2已至186.59萬億。

In January 2008, China's M2 was 41.78 trillion yuan, and in January 2019, it reached 186.59 trillion yuan.


In contrast, asset prices have skyrocketed, debt has ballooned, and the U.S. stock market, Japanese bond market and Chinese housing market have become the world's three asset bubbles.


Japanese and us treasuries, as well as hidden Chinese government debt, have become potential risk points.

據CNBC稱,惠譽國際評級發布的全球政府債務圖表(Global Government Debt Chart Book)顯示,截至2018年,全球政府債務已經高達66萬億美元,大約是2007年的兩倍。

According to CNBC, the Global Government Debt Chart Book released by fitch ratings shows that Global Government Debt has reached $66 trillion as of 2018, roughly double the level in 2007.


As the world currency and credit continue to expand, even lower interest rates will give rise to a large number of rentier people, who will withdraw from productive labor, and fewer people will be involved in making cakes, driving the cakes to become smaller and leading to economic recession.


Obviously, when the interest rate has space, the economic growth can be stimulated by lowering the interest rate and increasing the scale of money printing without increasing the distribution of the rurious class (the interest rate decreases * the scale of money increases, rising and falling), which will delay the problem, but also stimulate the speculation.


But when interest rates cannot be cut, any way to increase the printing press is to widen the distribution of the raking classes, thereby shrinking the pie and driving the economy into recession.


Typically, interest rates in Europe have reached their limit, but monetary easing is difficult to exit.


When there is no further delay, the credit that has been blown to its limit will lead to a deep crisis, one that may surpass the great depression of 1929...

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