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中国棚改刹车 凸显地方政府债务困境

据官方数据,2019年中国棚户区改造目标与去年相比开工量几乎减半,显示中国推进十年之久的棚改项目开始刹车。

China aims to nearly halve the amount of shantytown renovations it started in 2019 compared with last year, according to official data, signaling that the country's decade-old shantytown renovation program is coming to a halt.

棚改货币化安置成为近年来推动三四线城市房价上涨的推手。

Shacks to monetization of resettlement has become in recent years to promote the third - and fourth-tier cities housing prices.

但目前,中国经济下滑,土地出让金收入也下降,很多地方政府财政入不敷出,大规模棚改项目令地方政府财政吃紧,债务问题凸显。

At present, however, China's economy is in a downturn, and revenue from land transfer fees is also declining. Many local governments cannot make ends meet.

十年棚改刹车 今年棚改开工量减半

10 years shed changes brake this year shed changes construction amount halve

陆媒《第一财经》4月25日报道,一份官方数据显示,2019年中国各地棚户区改造约285万套,远低于外界450万套的预期,与2018年626万套相比,今年棚改开工目标已经腰斩。

About 2.85 million shantytowns across China will be rebuilt in 2019, according to an official figure, much lower than the 4.5 million expected by the outside world, and half of the 6.26 million expected in 2018, local media China business news reported on April 25.

从投资上看,2018年棚改投资1.74万亿元,2013~2017年棚改投资约6万亿元。

In terms of investment, 1.74 trillion yuan was invested in the renovation of rundown houses in 2018, and about 6 trillion yuan was invested from 2013 to 2017.

棚改缩量早有征兆。

The shrinkage of the shed was a sign of things to come.

2018~2020棚改目标是1500万套,年均500万套,而2015~2017是1800万套,年均600万套,相当于每年减少100万套。

From 2018 to 2020, the target is 15 million shanty towns with an annual average of 5 million shanty towns. From 2015 to 2017, the target is 18 million shanty towns with an annual average of 6 million shanty towns with an annual average of 6 million shanty towns with an annual average reduction of 1 million shanty towns.

报道说,近年棚改货币化安置带来不少负面影响,一些地方随意扩大棚改范围,增加了棚改成本,也推高了地方财政负债压力;

In recent years, the monetization and resettlement of the shanty towns have brought about many negative effects.

而在帮助三四线城市解决楼市库存的同时,对当地房价的波动起到了推波助澜的作用。

While helping third-tier and fourth-tier cities deal with their housing inventory, it has also contributed to local price fluctuations.

三四线城市房价的主推手

Third - and fourth-tier cities are major drivers of housing prices

2017年,三四线城市房价集体爆发,座座高楼拔地而起,房价直线上升。

In 2017, housing prices in third-tier and fourth-tier cities exploded collectively, with high-rise buildings going up and prices soaring.

仅2017年上半年,三四线城市房地产销售同比增长25%,一线城市同比增长只有4%。

In the first half of 2017 alone, real estate sales in third-tier and fourth-tier cities grew 25 percent year-on-year, while those in first-tier cities grew only 4 percent.

推涨三四线城市背后的重要力量是“货币化”棚改。

The main force behind pushing up third-tier and fourth-tier cities is the "monetization" of shanty towns.

2016年年初以来,棚户区改造“货币化安置”的占比大幅提高,货币化安置支持的住宅销售贡献了2016年全国住宅销售增速的40%和2017年上半年销售增速的约50%。

Since the beginning of 2016, the proportion of "monetized resettlement" for shantytown reconstruction has increased significantly, and the residential sales supported by monetized resettlement contributed to 40% of the national residential sales growth in 2016 and about 50% of the sales growth in the first half of 2017.

2014年,中国房地产面临高库存难题,扩大棚改安置会加剧库存压力。

In 2014, China's real estate faced the problem of high inventory, and the expansion of housing resettlement will exacerbate the inventory pressure.

央妈出奇招,为其特设了抵押补充贷款(PSL)工具,加大货币安置化比例,成为中国货币投放和财政刺激的一股力量,拆迁暴发户由此诞生。

Central mother surprise move, for its AD hoc mortgage supplementary loan (PSL) tools, increase the proportion of monetary resettlement, become a force of China's monetary and fiscal stimulus, demolition upstart was born.

货币化安置,就是把被拆迁棚户区居民的购房需求引导到商品房体系中,将没有购房需求的居民创造出购房需求。

Monetized resettlement is to guide the housing demand of the residents in shanty towns to the commercial housing system, and create the housing demand for the residents without the housing demand.

拆迁户集体大范围购房,部分区域房子在短时间内被消化掉,开发商、渠道商趁机抬价,拆迁户手握重金,在抢购区域甚至造成无房可买的局面。

Demolition households collectively buy houses on a large scale, and houses in some areas are digested within a short period of time. Developers and distributors take the opportunity to raise prices. Demolition households hold a large amount of money, and even cause the situation of no houses to buy in panic buying areas.

政策宽松的大环境,加上媒体宣传的发酵,更多的需求被提前释放。

Loose policy environment, coupled with the fermentation of media propaganda, more demand was released in advance.

一场抢房浪潮如滚雪球般在短时间内越滚越大,三四线房价直线上涨。

A wave of property grabs such as snowballing in a short time more and more rolling, three or four line prices straight up.

棚改成为本轮房价上涨的主推手之一。

Shantytown housing prices have become the current round of one of the main driver.

金融时报:棚改凸显地方政府债务困境

Financial times: shantytown reform highlights local government debt woes

英国《金融时报》4月25日报道,在中国土地出让收入低迷之际,由于债务负担和预算缺口,一些地方政府推迟为动迁户落实补偿款和安置房。

The financial times reported on the 25 April that some local governments were delaying the payment of compensation and rehousing for resettled households amid low land sales in China because of debt burdens and budget gaps.

由于过去几年货币化安置造成房屋库存大量消化,中国中央担心补偿款会过度炒热中小城市的房地产价格,去年夏天命令各地政府控制现金补偿。

China's central government last summer ordered local governments to rein in cash compensation because of concerns that the payments would overinflate property prices in smaller cities as a result of the massive liquidation of housing inventories caused by monetized resettlement in the past few years.

一些地方政府延迟对动迁户进行补偿,推迟建设新房屋,很多人因此没有永久的住处。

Some local governments are delaying compensation for displaced households and building new homes, leaving many without permanent housing.

棚改项目给地方政府带来不菲的收入。

The shantytown project has brought considerable revenue to the local government.

那些被划为棚改区域的土地卖给地产开发商,在给予居民补偿后仍有盈余。

Land earmarked for shanty towns is sold to property developers, with a surplus after residents are compensated.

棚户区改造是推动地方政府土地出让热潮的一大因素。

The transformation of shantytowns is a major factor driving the local government's land transfer boom.

去年地方政府卖地收入为6.5万亿元人民币,比2017年增长了25%。

Revenue from land sales by local governments was 6.5 trillion yuan last year, up 25 percent from 2017.

如今,中国土地出让市场已经放缓。

Now China's land transfer market has slowed.

今年头两个月,土地出让收入下降了34%,而此前地方政府卖地收入下降5%是自2015年经济动荡以来最大的降幅。

Revenue from land sales fell 34 per cent in the first two months of the year after a 5 per cent fall in local government land sales was the biggest since the economic turmoil of 2015.

官方统计数据显示,2018年第四季度中国各城市的土地出让均价下跌了11%。

The average price of land sold in Chinese cities fell 11 percent in the fourth quarter of 2018, according to official statistics.

上海复旦大学研究地方政府财政问题的专家王永钦表示:“在一些地方,棚户区改造项目的收入很好。

Wang yongqin, an expert on local government finances at fudan university in Shanghai, said: "in some places, the income from shantytown reconstruction projects is good.

但在四线城市,政府很穷,可能无法执行这一政策。”

But in fourth-tier cities, the government is very poor and may not be able to implement this policy.

评级机构穆迪(Moody’s)表示,长期以来,地方政府支出高于收入,收支存在巨大缺口,近年来缺口越来越大。

Moody's, the rating agency, said local governments had long spent more than they earned and there was a huge gap between their revenues and expenditures, which has grown larger in recent years.

缺口最大的是焦作所在的中国中西部。

The biggest gap is in central and western China, where jiaozuo is located.

分析师表示,削减补偿款和推迟建安置房等措施,反映了最近几个月中小城市住宅市场出现降温,这令有关部门更难以通过卖地来收回补偿款支出。

Analysts said measures such as cutting compensation payments and delaying the construction of resettlement homes reflected a cooling of the residential market in smaller cities in recent months, making it more difficult for authorities to recoup compensation payments through land sales.

去年夏天以来,中国中央政府通过鼓励地方政府向商业银行发售棚户区改造“专项”债券,以缓解后者的财政压力。

Since last summer, China's central government has eased financial pressure on commercial Banks by encouraging local governments to issue "special" bonds for shantytown reconstruction.

根据万得资讯收集的数据,自去年6月以来地方政府通过这一方式已筹集了大约3万亿元人民币。

According to data collected by wind information, local governments have raised about rmb3tn in this way since last June.

但房地产市场疲软的地区可能难以筹集资金。

But areas with weak housing markets may struggle to raise capital.

据一位知情的银行家透露,由于市场缺乏兴趣,今年贵州省一个小城市的棚户区改造债券取消了发行。

A shantytown conversion bond in a small city in guizhou province was cancelled this year because of a lack of interest, according to a banker familiar with the matter.

分析师称土地需求疲软的地区将难以筹集资金来支付它们的棚户区改造项目。

Analysts say areas with weak land demand will struggle to raise money to pay for their shantytown redevelopment projects.

在这些地区,发售新债可能不足以缓解财政压力。

In these regions, new bond sales may not be enough to ease fiscal pressure.

据彭博(Bloomberg)数据,从今年4月1日到2021年底,有3.6万亿元人民币的地方政府债务到期。

From April 1 to the end of 2021, 3.6 trillion yuan of local government debt was due, according to Bloomberg data.

标普全球表示:“年度新发资金配额不足以解决部分地方政府的资金缺口,即使今年有较高的(债券发行)预期配额。”

"The annual new quota will not be enough to cover the shortfall for some local governments, even if there are higher [bond issuance] anticipated quotas this year," s&p global said.

该机构同时表示部分地区“继续发债的空间有限,因为它们的债务已接近上限”。

It also said there was "limited scope for continued issuance in some regions as they are close to the debt ceiling".

据投资银行中金公司数据,有23个省份的地方政府债务超过其财政收入的300%,有10个省份超过了500%。

According to cicc, an investment bank, local government debt in 23 provinces exceeds 300% of their revenues, and in 10 provinces it exceeds 500%.


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