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郑永年:“经济战”与中美关系

美国社会很多精英提倡通过和中国进行经济战的方式来拖慢甚至遏制中国的发展。

Many elites in American society advocate economic war with China to slow down or even contain China's development.

所以,不难理解,今天中美两国尽管进行着“贸易战”,但“贸易战”仅仅是一个名义而已,实际层面两国之间所进行的早已经大大超越了贸易范畴,包括商贸、投资、知识产权、技术等等方面,可说是已经拉开了要进行全面经济战的架势。

And so it is easy to understand, although China and the United States today is a "trade war", but "trade war" is just a name, the actual level of between the two countries have greatly beyond the category of trade, including trade, investment, intellectual property, technology and so on, is already open to conduct a comprehensive economic war.

美国要对中国进行经济战,这使人想起了中国近代一些精英人物提倡要和西方列强进行“商战”的主张。

The United States wants to carry out economic war against China, which reminds people of some elite figures advocating "commercial war" with western powers in modern China.

其中,以清末的郑观应(1842-1921)最具典型和影响力。

Among them, zheng guanying (1842-1921) in the late qing dynasty was the most typical and influential.

郑观应曾任上海机器织布局、轮船招商局的总办,与洋务派关系密切。

Zheng guanying was once the general office of Shanghai machinery weaving and shipping merchants bureau, and had a close relationship with westernization school.

中国早期维新思想家认为外国侵略者对中国进行经济掠夺,是造成中国贫弱的主要原因,他们因而主张不但讲求武备,加强国防,以抵抗西方资本主义国家的“兵战”,而且必须大力发展民族工商业,同西方国家进行“商战”。

China's early reformist thinkers believed that foreign invaders' economic plunder of China was the main cause of China's weakness, so they advocated not only laying stress on arms and weapons and strengthening national defense to resist the "military war" of western capitalist countries, but also vigorously developing national industry and commerce and engaging in "commercial war" with western countries.

而郑观应的“商战”思想(主要体现在他1893年出版的代表作《盛世危言》中)则更近一步,认为:“习兵战,不如习商战。”

Zheng guanying's "commercial war" thought (mainly reflected in his masterpiece "dangerous words of the golden age" published in 1893) is a step further, that: "xi shang war is better than studying military war.

在他看来,学习西方,仅依靠热衷于购铁舰、建炮台、造枪械、制水雷、设海军、操陆阵,讲求战事不遗余力,远不如西方各国那样倾其全力去发展商务。

In his view, learning from the west, relying only on their enthusiasm for buying iron ships, building forts, making guns, making mines, setting up navies and operating landmines, and sparing no effort in warfare, is far less than the west's efforts to develop business.

为进行“商战”,中国就必须破除以农为本、以商为末、重本抑末的传统成见。

In order to carry out "commercial war", China must break the traditional prejudice that agriculture is the basis, business is the end, and emphasis on capital and restraint of the end.

他认为,西方列强侵略中国的目的,是要把中国变成他们的“取材之地、牟利之场”,遂采用“兵战”和“商战”的手段来对付中国,而商战比兵战的手段更为隐蔽,更为严重,更为危险。

He believed that the purpose of the western powers' invasion of China was to turn China into their "source of resources and profit field", so they resorted to "military war" and "commercial war", which were more covert, serious and dangerous than military war.

所谓“兵之并吞祸人易觉,商之捭可敝国无形”。

A combination of weapons that trumps other disasters makes a country invisible.

他主张“西人以商为战,彼既以商来,我亦当以商往”。

He advocated that "the western people fight with business. If they fight with business, I should also fight with business".

只有以商立国,以工翼商,“欲制西人以自强,莫如振兴商务”。

Only by business to build the country, to the workers wing business, "to control the west to self-improvement, such as the revitalization of business."

郑观应所说的“商战”类似于重商主义,不仅影响了当时的光绪皇帝,而且影响了日后的几代政治和知识精英,包括康有为、梁启超、孙中山、毛泽东等。

What zheng guanying called "commercial war" was similar to commercialism, which not only influenced the guangxu emperor at that time, but also the political and intellectual elites in the future generations, including kang youwei, liang qichao, sun yat-sen and MAO zedong.

从这个角度看,今天中国经济学家们所说的“赶超经济学”实际上也具有郑观应的影子。

From this point of view, what Chinese economists say today is "catch-up economics" actually has the shadow of zheng guanying.

不管怎么说,学习、赶上和超越西方一直是这几代中国人的梦想,而这样做的目的就是为了不让列强任意欺负中国。

Anyway, it has been the dream of generations of Chinese to learn, catch up with and surpass the west.

今天是美国对中国进行经济战

Today is the United States waging economic war against China

现在中国和西方的情况则倒了过来,是美国要和中国进行经济战。

Now the situation in China and the west is reversed. It is the United States that wants to fight economic war with China.

美国要和中国进行经济战的原因,自然和近代中国要和西方列强进行商战全然不同。

The reason why the United States should engage in economic war with China is quite different from the reason why modern China should engage in commercial war with western powers.

今天的美国尽管经历着相对的衰落,但仍然是世界上最强大的国家,几乎在所有领域领先其他所有国家,同时美国更没有如近代中国那样面临强大的敌人。

The United States today, despite its relative decline, remains the most powerful country in the world, ahead of almost every other country in almost every field, and it does not face the same powerful enemies as modern China.

美国的问题是内部的,内部问题解决不了就外化成为国际问题,贸易战只是其中一种“外化”行为。

The United States' problems are internal. If internal problems cannot be solved, they will become international problems. A trade war is just one of them.

很显然,美国不仅在和中国打贸易战,而且也在和其他很多国家包括墨西哥和印度在打贸易战。

Obviously, the us is fighting a trade war not only with China, but also with many other countries including Mexico and India.

美国希望通过外部经济(贸易)战来解决内部问题,尽管没有人相信美国这样做会成功。

The us wants to solve its internal problems through an external economic (trade) war, although no one believes it will succeed in doing so.

当然,对美国来说,经济战并不是新鲜事情。

Of course, economic warfare is nothing new for the United States.

美国在立国后不久就和当时先进国家的英国进行了一场“经济战”,即实行重商主义,发展和保护民族工业。

Soon after the founding of the United States and the then advanced country of Britain to engage in an "economic war", namely the implementation of mercantilism, the development and protection of national industry.

美国只有在内部强大之后才进行开放政策,进入世界的。

The United States opened up to the world only after it became strong internally.

美国1890年代成为世界上最大的经济体,然后在一战期间开始全面介入世界事务,二战之后成为整个西方的领导,苏联解体和冷战结束之后成为唯一的霸权。

The United States became the largest economy in the world in the 1890s, and then began to fully engage in world affairs during world war I. After world war ii, the United States became the leader of the whole west, and the only hegemony after the collapse of the Soviet union and the end of the cold war.

不过,在这个期间,美国也从来没有停止过和其他国家进行贸易战,或者经济战。

During that time, however, the United States never stopped fighting trade wars, or economic wars, with other countries.

整个冷战期间,美苏冷战很大程度上表现为经济战。

Throughout the cold war, the cold war between the United States and the Soviet union was largely manifested as economic war.

美苏冷战尽管表面上看军事竞赛,但背后则是经济竞争。

Although the cold war between the United States and the Soviet union looked like military competition on the surface, behind it was economic competition.

所以,也不难理解,苏联解体的原因并非外部和美国的军事竞赛,而是内部的滞涨和老百姓的不满。

Therefore, it is not difficult to understand that the reason for the collapse of the Soviet union is not external and American military competition, but internal stagnation and popular dissatisfaction.

柏林墙是从内部倒塌的,而不是从外部推到的。

The wall came down from the inside, not the outside.

一旦当美国感觉到某一领域被(或者要被)其他国家所超越时,就会毫不留情地通过贸易战来精准打击和解决问题,甚至包括对自己的盟友例如德国、法国和日本。

When the United States feels that an area is being (or is about to be) overtaken by other countries, it is unrelenting in its use of trade wars to pinpoint and fix problems, even against Allies like Germany, France and Japan.

今天美国打压华为公司的手段和美国从前打压德国、法国和日本公司的手段没有多少差别,所不同的是因为这些国家是美国的盟友,还可以在美国内部找到自己的朋友(例如美国国务院和军方),而今天的中国因为被美国视为“对手”,因此找不到内部同情者或者支持者。

Once upon a time in the United States today on the means of huawei company and the United States on the means of Germany, France and Japan company don't have much difference, the difference is because these countries is the Allies of the United States, to find your friends can also be within the United States (such as the us state department and military), and today's China because by the United States as a "rival", so I couldn't find internal sympathizers or supporters.

贸易战是西方的概念,也是西方国家借以用来解决国与国之间贸易问题的传统手段。

Trade war is a western concept and a traditional way for western countries to solve trade problems between countries.

在中国漫长的历史上,从来没有发展出类似的概念或者使用类似的方法。

In the long history of China, no similar concept or method has been developed.

历史地看,在近代西方崛起之前,中国曾经是最发达的国家,为全世界各国输出了大量的丝绸、瓷器、茶叶等产品。

Historically, before the rise of the modern west, China used to be the most developed country, exporting a lot of silk, porcelain, tea and other products to all countries in the world.

中国的四大发明流传到西方和世界各个角落,也从来没有今天那样的“知识产权”一说。

China's four great inventions spread to the west and all corners of the world, and there has never been such a thing as "intellectual property" today.

这些年来,人们津津乐道地把传统的“朝贡体系”,视为中国和其他国家的不公平贸易安排。

Over the years, the traditional "tribute system" has been fondly described as an unfair trade arrangement between China and other countries.

但这是西方故意的曲解,因为用今天的话语来说,朝贡体系实际上是中国对其他较小国家实行的“单边开放政策”,外国使节通过“磕头”仪式“朝贡”中国皇帝,中国皇帝就许可该国和中国进行贸易往来,但中国皇帝并不要求该国也向中国开放。

But this is western deliberately distorted, because in today's words, the tributary system is, in fact, China's other smaller countries "unilateral open policy", foreign diplomats through "kowtow" ceremony "tributary" the emperor of China, the Chinese emperor of licensing trade with the country and China, but the emperor of China does not require the country are open to China.

因此,当中国皇帝的“礼物”“入不敷出”的时候,就要求减少外国“朝贡”的次数或者延长“朝贡周期”。

Therefore, when the Chinese emperor's "gifts" were "beyond his income", he required to reduce the number of foreign "tributes" or extend the "tribute period".

这种封建性的贸易安排或许就是中国尽管曾经是贸易大国,但并没有发展出具有国际性的贸易规则的原因,也或许就是中国落后的其中一个重要原因。

This kind of feudal trade arrangement may be the reason why China, despite being a great trading power, did not develop international trade rules.

西方国家对中国贸易战也并非第一次。

It is not the first time that western countries have started a trade war with China.

第一次和第二次鸦片战争就是典型的贸易战。

The first and second opium wars were typical trade wars.

当英国在和中国的贸易中没有竞争力而产生大量贸易逆差的时候,英国就毫无羞耻地在中国进行非法的鸦片贸易。

When Britain ran a large trade deficit due to its uncompetitive trade with China, Britain had no shame in running the illegal opium trade in China.

在中国被打败之后,各国列强更是展开了瓜分中国的竞争。

After China was defeated, the great powers competed to carve up China.

中国近代史的进程就是从这种耻辱中开始的。

From this humiliation began the course of modern Chinese history.

现在轮到中国如何应对美国发动的经济战了。

Now it is China's turn to respond to the us economic war.

从目前的状况看,美国的意图极其明确,就是要拖延和遏制中国的发展。

As things stand, America's intention is clear: to delay and contain China's development.

未来的局势如何在很大程度上取决于中国如何回应。

Much depends on how China responds.

今天的中国并非吴下阿蒙,并非郑观应时代了,未来的历史并非美国一家说了算的,中国也是这个舞台上的一个主角。

Today's China is not wu xiamun or zheng guanying. The future history of China is not dictated by the United States alone. China is also a leading role in this stage.

中国需要回应,也必须回应,但回应的方法必须得当。

China needs to respond, and must respond, but in the right way.

当代中国的现代化如果说是从毛泽东时代开始,那么当时的中国已经失去了走往日西方列强现代化道路的机会。

If the modernization of modern China began in the MAO zedong era, then China has lost the opportunity to follow the road of modernization of the former western powers.

西方列强无一不是通过帝国主义和殖民地主义的方法来辅助内部现代化的。

All the western powers assisted their internal modernization by means of imperialism and colonialism.

比较而言,中国走的是一条通过内部资本积累的内发型现代化道路。

By contrast, China is on an internal capital accumulation of internal hair modernization road.

直到改革开放政策开始之后,中国才改变了这种情况。

It was not until the reform and opening up policy began that China changed this situation.

应当指出的是,改革开放之后的大部分时间里,中国是打开自己的国门,欢迎外国资本进入中国的。

It should be pointed out that for most of the time after the reform and opening up, China opened its door to foreign capital.

尽管外国资本对中国的发展做出了贡献,但主要还是外国资本和中国廉价的劳动力和土地的结合。

Although foreign capital has contributed to China's development, it is mainly a combination of foreign capital and China's cheap labor and land.

在这个过程中,外国资本的收益极其丰厚,中国通过资本积累和西方技术扩散等方式也得到了发展,但所付出的各方面的代价(尤其是环保方面的)也是沉重的。

In the process, foreign capital has paid off handsomely, and China has grown through capital accumulation and the spread of western technology.

中国的资本“走出去”只是在中国加入世界贸易组织之后的事情。

China's capital "going out" is only after China joined the world trade organization.

但没有多少年,就迎来了今天的贸易战。

But it wasn't long before today's trade war.

也就是说,中国也经历了自己的重商主义发展阶段。

In other words, China has gone through its own stage of mercantilism.

内生型的发展模式使得中国经济并没有像其他很多经济体那样高度依赖西方美国。

The endogenous development model makes China's economy less dependent on the western United States than many other economies.

尽管归根结底,像中国那样的巨型经济体最终需要依靠内需而实现可持续发展,但这绝非闭关锁国。

While the bottom line is that a giant economy like China ultimately needs to rely on domestic demand for sustainable growth, it is by no means isolated.

闭关锁国是必须避免的。

Isolation must be avoided.

改革开放之初,中国社会就开放政策达成了一个广泛的共识,即封闭走向落后,落后就要挨打。

At the beginning of the reform and opening up, the Chinese society has reached a broad consensus on the opening up policy, that is, close to backward, backward will be beaten.

这个共识到今天仍然没有任何变化。

This consensus remains unchanged today.

因此,当美国西方开始进行贸易保护主义和经济民族主义的时候,中国领导层一再宣言要坚持开放政策,并且开始了新一波的更为深度的开放政策实践。

As a result, while the U.S. west has embraced protectionism and economic nationalism, China's leadership has repeatedly declared itself committed to an open policy and embarked on a new wave of deeper open practices.

也就是说,中国在以全方位的、更大规模、更深刻的开放政策迎战美国的对华经济战。

In other words, China is facing the economic war with the United States with an all-round, larger and deeper opening-up policy.

和排他性的重商主义时代不同,今天的经济战所竞争的是谁更开放,看谁能够通过开放政策吸引到最优质经济技术资源,从而提高和强化自己的竞争能力,追赶或者保持经济的领先地位。

Unlike the era of exclusive mercantilism, today's economic war is about who is more open, who can attract the best economic and technological resources through the open policy, so as to improve and strengthen their competitiveness, catch up with or maintain the leading position in the economy.

西方不会轻易放弃中国市场

The west will not give up the Chinese market easily

从世界经济史经验来看,只要一个国家本身是开放的,没有其他国家可以把这个国家孤立起来。

From the experience of the world economic history, as long as a country itself is open, no other country can isolate the country.

同样,只要中国本身是开放的,资本的逻辑决定了中国是不可以被孤立的。

Similarly, as long as China itself is open, the logic of capital dictates that China cannot be isolated.

美国经济之所以强大其原因之一是因为美国的消费市场,庞大的消费市场使得很多国家需要依赖美国市场而生存。

One of the reasons why the American economy is strong is because of the American consumer market, which makes many countries depend on the American market for survival.

这一逻辑也适用中国。

The same logic applies to China.

今天的中国已经是世界上第二大经济体、最大的贸易国,内部消费对中国经济增长的贡献率已经超过70%。

Today, China is already the world's second largest economy and the largest trading nation. Domestic consumption has contributed more than 70% to China's economic growth.

尽管中国的中产阶层的比率仍然小于美国的,但其绝对规模已经赶上甚至超过美国。

Although China's middle class is still smaller than America's, it has caught up with or surpassed it in absolute size.

也就是说,中国拥有一个利润丰厚的大市场。

In other words, China has a big and lucrative market.

美国的商品需要市场,美国的技术需要市场,没有人乐意放弃中国市场。

American goods need a market, American technology needs a market, and no one is willing to give up on the Chinese market.

即使美国的资本因为政治压力而不得不放弃,那么欧盟和日本等国家呢?

Even if American capital has to be abandoned because of political pressure, what about countries like the European Union and Japan?

美国是否有能力施压所有西方国家放弃中国市场呢?

Is the us capable of pressuring all western countries to abandon the Chinese market?

再者,美国企业如果放弃中国市场就会增加自己的成本,导致投资的减少,最终导致企业的衰落。

Moreover, if American enterprises abandon the Chinese market, it will increase their own costs, lead to the reduction of investment, and eventually lead to the decline of enterprises.

美国进入世界体系以来,其经济之所以强大就是因为其一直处于不断扩张的过程之中。

Since the United States entered the world system, its economic strength is because it has been in the process of continuous expansion.

用马克思的话来说,资本的本质就是扩张,否则就会是死亡。

In Marx's words, the essence of capital is expansion or death.

如果借用西方的概念来说,中国便是“资本主义”的最后一个边疆。

To borrow a western concept, China is the last frontier of "capitalism".

既然西方花了巨大的努力打开了中国市场,谁又会轻易放弃中国市场呢?

Since the west has made great efforts to open up the Chinese market, who will give it up easily?

的确,在这场贸易战中,美国的企业家并没有为中国发声,有的站到了政府的一边。

Indeed, American entrepreneurs have not spoken up for China in this trade war, and some have sided with the government.

不过,美国企业界和美国其他的既得利益集团(包括安全和军工系统、政客等)的意图不同,企业家向中国施压是为了中国更大的开放,而其他利益集团则是意图遏制和围堵中国。

However, corporate America has different intentions from other vested interests in the United States, including the security and defense systems, politicians, etc. Entrepreneurs are pressing China for greater openness, while other interest groups are trying to contain and contain China.

从资本的角度来看,简单地说,中国越是开放,美国的贸易战越是难以打下去。

From a capital perspective, simply put, the more open China is, the harder it will be for the us to fight a trade war.

在国际舞台上,各国面临着现存多边主义组织解体的危机,尤其是那些美国在其中占据主导地位的组织,包括世界贸易组织。

On the international stage, countries are faced with the collapse of existing multilateral organizations, especially those in which the United States dominates, including the world trade organization.

美国纷纷“退群”,转向了单边主义和双边主义。

The United States retreated to unilateralism and bilateralism.

不过,对所有其他较小国家来说,包括欧盟成员国、日本和东盟(亚细安)国家等,仍然需要通过多边主义机构和方法来解决问题。

However, for all the other smaller countries, including eu members, Japan and asean (asean) countries, multilateral institutions and approaches are still needed to solve problems.

这个方面也是中国可以加以努力的。

This is something China can do.

中国可以加快加入一些区域多边主义组织,包括没有美国的跨太平洋伙伴关系协定(TPP)。

China could speed up its membership of regional multilateral organisations, including the trans-pacific partnership (TPP), which does not include the us.

同时中国可以创建新的多边主义机构,类似亚洲基础设施投资银行,尽量把美国的盟友也包括进来;

At the same time, China could create new multilateral institutions, such as the Asian infrastructure investment bank, that would include as many American Allies as possible.

即使是像“一带一路”那样的项目也可以转化成为多边主义机构,向其他多边机构开放。

Even programs like One Belt And One Road can be transformed into multilateral institutions, open to other multilateral institutions.

不管怎么说,即然美国向中国发起了经济战,中国即使想回避也很难,只有迎战。

In any case, even if the United States launched an economic war against China, it would be difficult for China to avoid it.

但迎战的过程应当是理性展现的过程,而不是情绪表达的过程。

But the fight should be a process of rational display, not emotional expression.

情绪很容易表达,而理性则是少有的。

Emotions are easy to express, but reason is rare.

但只有理性才能保护和促成国家利益的最大化,也只有理性才能促成中国履行作为大国的区域和国际责任。

But only rationality can protect and maximize national interests, and only rationality can enable China to fulfill its regional and international responsibilities as a great power.

作者是新加坡国立大学东亚研究所教授

The writer is a professor at the institute of east Asian studies, national university of Singapore


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