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中国学者:习特会可重启谈判但无法扭转中美关系

美国总统特朗普和中国国家主席习近平前天通电话,确定在日本举行的20国集团(G20)峰会期间会晤。

US President Donald trump and Chinese President xi jinping confirmed a meeting on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Japan yesterday.

受访学者预判,此次会晤将成为重启贸易谈判的重要转折点,但无法扭转已发生质变的中美关系。

The academics surveyed predicted that the meeting would be an important turning point for the resumption of trade talks, but would not reverse a qualitatively changed relationship.

南京大学国际关系研究院院长朱锋受访时向《联合早报》指出,中美在贸易问题上展开一个多月的舆论战和对攻战后,两国领导人确定会面,传递出一个积极信号,“双方还是要解决问题,而不是简单的争吵和对立”。

Zhu feng, dean of the institute of international relations at nanjing university, told lianhe zaobao that after more than a month of public opinion and confrontation on the trade issue, the meeting between the two leaders sent a positive signal that "the two sides still need to solve problems, not just quarrel and confrontation."

他判断,伴随着G20习特会的正面气氛,很可能会像去年12月中美首脑在布宜诺斯艾利斯的会晤那样,成为重启贸易谈判的重要转折点。

He judged that the positive atmosphere surrounding the G20 summit was likely to be as important a turning point in reviving trade talks as the us-china summit in Buenos Aires last December.

去年那场习特会后,中美宣布“停火”90天。

China and the us declared a 90-day "ceasefire" after last year's xi meeting.

双方之后经过多轮贸易磋商,一度让外界看到达成协议的希望。

After several rounds of trade talks, there was some hope of a deal.

不过,美国上月5日宣布对中国加征新关税,贸易谈判形势急转直下。

However, the situation in the trade talks took a turn for the worse when the us announced new tariffs on China last month 5.

双方贸易磋商团队上月10日在华盛顿举行最后一轮谈判后再无接触。

The trade teams have not been in contact since the last round of talks in Washington on October 10.

中美随后互征报复性关税,并对对方企业发出制裁威胁,中国还亮出“稀土牌”作为反制工具。

China and the United States subsequently imposed retaliatory tariffs and threatened sanctions against each other's companies. China also used the "rare earth" brand as a counter measure.

本月28日至29日在大阪举行的G20峰会,被视为双方领导人避免贸易战持续升级的最后机会之一。

The G20 summit in Osaka on November 29th, solstice, was seen as one of the last chances for the two leaders to avoid a prolonged escalation of the trade war.

美可能搁置征税计划

America may shelve tax plans

华中科技大学教授陈波受访时分析,从会晤结果看,更大的可能性是美国搁置对3000亿美元(4100亿新元)中国输美商品征税的计划,向外界释放稳定信号,“也就是贸易战不会很快解决,但不会严峻下去”,之后双方继续就早前的贸易协议文本进行磋商。

Huazhong university of science and technology, professor Chen bo when questioned analysis, from the results meeting, aside the greater possibility is that the United States for $300 billion (s $410 billion) Chinese imports tax planning, release the stable signal to the world and the "trade war are solved soon, but it is not severe", after the two sides continue to text talks earlier trade agreement.

两国宣布习特会消息后,白宫国家经济委员会主任库德洛接受福克斯新闻访问表示,美国希望继续就知识产权盗窃、强制技术转让、市场开放和关税等结构性改革进行对话。

Following the announcement of xi's meeting, White House national economic council director Dennis kudlow told fox news that the United States wants to continue dialogue on structural reforms such as intellectual property theft, forced technology transfer, market opening and tariffs.

他也表明,美国一直要一份可执行的协议,“这绝对是至关重要的”。

He also made clear that the United States has always wanted an enforceable agreement, "which is absolutely critical."

有美国官员则对中美重启谈判反应冷淡,贸易代表莱特希泽当天在参议院金融委员会听证会上对议员们说:“我知道有一件事是行不通的,那就是和他们谈。”

"One thing I know is not going to work, and that is to talk to them," lighthizer told lawmakers at a senate banking committee hearing.

对此,中国外交部发言人陆慷昨天在例行记者会上回应说,中美经贸分歧可以通过对话和磋商来找到解决办法,但要建立在相互尊重、平等互利的基础之上,最重要的是总体均衡照顾彼此合理关切,找到双方都能接受的解决方案。

In response, the Chinese foreign ministry spokesman lu kang said at a regular press conference yesterday, china-us economic and trade differences can be found through dialogue and consultation solution, but to build on the basis of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit, the most important is the overall balance to take care of each other reasonable concerns, find a mutually acceptable solution.

随着特朗普正式宣布参加2020年美国总统大选,有分析认为,寻求连任的他将有更大动力在中美贸易谈判中见好就收。

With trump officially announcing his candidacy for the 2020 us presidential election, some analysts believe he will have more incentive to pull out of us-china trade talks as he seeks re-election.

陈波指出,贸易战会冲击美国农业州,也就是特朗普的铁票仓,最近美国多个主流民调也显示,特朗普的支持率落后于民主党参选人,如果无法达成贸易协议,在选举上可能给特朗普减分,“面对国内压力,特朗普可能急于摘这个桃子”。

Chen bo pointed out that the trade war will impact the agricultural states, namely the trump iron constituency, recently the United States more than the mainstream opinion poll also showed that trump's support behind the democratic candidate, if unable to reach a trade agreement, in the election is likely to trump points, "in the face of domestic pressure, may be eager to pick the peach" trump.

不过,即便双方在贸易问题上取得进展,学者仍不看好两国关系得到实质性改变。

But even if the two sides make progress on trade, scholars are not convinced that the relationship will change substantially.

朱锋认为,恢复贸易谈判并不能解决中美间的科技战,以及中美关系整体下滑,走向新型大国竞争的局面,中美关系总体还是令人担忧。

Zhu feng believes that the resumption of trade talks will not solve the scientific and technological war between China and the United States, as well as the overall decline of china-us relations and the trend towards a new type of great power competition.

他说:“贸易谈判恢复,即使是达成协议,并不能使得中美关系在目前已经发生质变的情况下,有实质性的扭转和改变。”

"The resumption of trade talks, even if an agreement is reached, will not lead to a substantial turn and change in china-us relations in the context of the qualitative changes that have taken place," he said.


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