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受访学者警告 中美经贸一旦脱钩 两国较量将更严峻

美国领导人可能认为中国经济处于脆弱期,所以展开极限施压;

Us leaders may believe that China's economy is in a fragile period, so launch extreme pressure;

中国则可能认为美国处境脆弱,尤其特朗普快面对大选,解决不了贸易问题将降低他当选的机会。

China, for its part, may see the us as vulnerable, especially as Mr Trump faces an election in which failure to tackle trade will reduce his chances.

但这两方面可能都存在误判。

But there may be miscalculations on both counts.

——中国学者成晓河

-- cheng xiaohe, Chinese scholar

中美关税战越演越烈,受访学者分析,美国在贸易谈判中不设底线,让中美往经贸脱钩方向再跨前了一步。

The tariff war between China and the United States is becoming more and more fierce. According to the analysis of the interviewed scholars, the United States does not set a bottom line in the trade negotiations, which makes China and the United States take another step towards economic decoupling.

学者警告,中美一旦脱钩,美国在香港、台湾、南中国海等问题更不会手软,中美较量将进入更严峻的新阶段。

Scholars warn that once China and the United States decouple, the United States will not be weak in Hong Kong, Taiwan, the south China sea and other issues, and the contest between China and the United States will enter a more serious new stage.

中国前晚宣布对750亿美元(1041亿新元)美国输华商品加征关税后,美国总统特朗普宣布进一步调高5500亿美元中国输美商品关税,更指令在华美国企业“立即寻找代替中国的地点”,为中美贸易谈判乃至全球经济蒙上更大的阴影。

US President Donald trump raised tariffs on us $550 billion worth of Chinese goods after China announced late last night that it would impose tariffs on us $75 billion (s $104.1 billion) of us goods, ordering us companies in China to "immediately seek alternatives to China", casting a bigger shadow over china-us trade talks and the global economy.

特朗普似乎没有底线

Mr Trump seems to have no bottom line

中国人民大学国际关系学院国际政治系副教授成晓河接受《联合早报》访问时分析,特朗普的最新举措显示他在贸易争端上似乎没有底线,中国如果进一步反制,特朗普仍会无所不用其极地祭出其他手段。

In an interview with lianhe zaobao, cheng xiaohe, an associate professor of international politics at renmin university of China's school of international relations, said that trump's latest move shows that he seems to have no bottom line in the trade dispute, and that trump will still resort to other measures if China counteracts further.

经过最新一轮交锋,成晓河认为中美往经贸脱钩的方向再跨前了一步;

After the latest round of exchanges, cheng xiaohe believes that China and the United States to the direction of economic decoupling another step forward;

而如果真的脱钩,特朗普在香港、台湾、南中国海这几个触碰中国敏感神经的议题更不会手软,中美之间的较量或进入更严峻的新阶段。

If decoupling happens, trump will not relent on the issues that touch China's sensitive nerves, such as Hong Kong, Taiwan and the south China sea. The contest between China and the United States may enter a more serious new stage.

中美关税战升级加深了两国商界人士的忧虑。

The escalating tariff war between China and the United States has heightened concerns among business people in both countries.

美国有线电视新闻网(CNN)引述美中贸易全国委员会会长艾伦(Craig Allen)说:“这已经成为一个没有明确目标、策略和重点的过程,并且在全球经济局势恶化的背景下发生,为现有的不确定性添加更多不确定性。”

"This has become a process without clear goals, strategies and priorities, and it is taking place against a backdrop of worsening global economic conditions, adding more uncertainty to existing uncertainties," CNN quoted Craig Allen, President of the u.s.-china business council, as saying.

在美国,代表农业、石油、零售、汽车领域的多个行业协会纷纷发表声明,警告贸易争端升级将损害美企和消费者利益。

In the us, trade associations representing the agricultural, oil, retail and automotive sectors issued statements warning that escalating trade disputes would hurt us companies and consumers.

从中国角度,中国人民大学经济学院教授于春海受访则分析,中国此前尽可能通过转口或开拓新市场规避关税影响,但走到这一步,这么做的空间也已越来越小。

From China's perspective, yu chunhai, a professor at renmin university of China's school of economics, said that China has tried to avoid the impact of tariffs by re-exporting or opening new markets, but at this stage, there is less and less room to do so.

于春海指出,中国出口商此前还能与美国进口商和消费者分担美国对华关税负担,但随着5500亿中国输美商品关税再增加5%,中国出口商可能被迫承担更大的负担。

Chinese exporters had previously been able to share the burden of us tariffs with us importers and consumers, but with tariffs on 550bn Chinese imports rising by another 5 per cent, they could be forced to bear a bigger burden, Mr Yu said.

这是因为随着美国经济面对更大下行压力,消费者收入增速下降,通过在美国抬高商品价格来承担关税的空间已经不大,这么做只会导致需求急剧下降。

That's because with the U.S. economy facing more downward pressure and consumer income growth slowing, there is little scope to pay tariffs by raising prices in the U.S. that would only lead to a sharp drop in demand.

面对美国最新一轮关税,中国商务部发言人昨晚发布文告表示坚决反对,并指责美国单边、霸凌的贸易保护主义和极限施压违背中美元首共识,违背相互尊重、平等互利原则,严重破坏多边贸易体制和正常国际贸易秩序,“必将自食其果”。

In the face of the latest round of tariff, China's commerce ministry spokesman last night issue proclamations resolutely opposed, and accused the U.S. of unilateral, bullying of trade protectionism and extreme pressure against the head of state is reached, contrary to the principle of mutual respect, equality and mutual benefit, serious damage to the multilateral trading system and the normal international trade order, "will take the consequences.

发言人强烈敦促美国“不要误判形势,不要低估中国人民的决心,立即停止错误做法,否则一切后果由美方承担。”

The spokesman strongly urged the United States "not to misjudge the situation, not to underestimate the determination of the Chinese people, and immediately stop the wrong practices, or the United States will bear all the consequences."

中国强调有能力奉陪到底

China insists it is capable of staying the course

中国官媒则强调中国有能力奉陪到底,并试图舒缓额外关税可能带来的担忧。

State media have stressed China's ability to stay the course and have sought to allay fears of additional tariffs.

《人民日报》昨天发表评论强调中国的反制措施都击中美国痛点:“恢复对原产自美国的汽车及零部件加征关税,会成为美国制造业的痛;

A commentary in the People's Daily yesterday stressed that China's countermeasures hit a sore spot with the us: "the resumption of tariffs on cars and parts originating from the us will be a pain for the us manufacturing industry.

首次将美国生产的原油纳入反制范围,意味着美国登上世界第一大原油出口国之际红利缩水;

The inclusion of us crude for the first time means smaller dividends as the us emerges as the world's largest oil exporter;

针对美国大豆进一步反制,会使其丧失价格优势从而难以进入中国市场”。

Further countermeasures against us soyabeans would deprive them of their price advantage and make it difficult to enter the Chinese market.

《环球时报》总编辑胡锡进则在推特以英文写道:“中美如果脱钩了,会发生什么事?

"What will happen if China and the United States decouple?

中国可以自主发展科技,但美国不会找得到和中国有同等潜力的代替市场。

China can develop its own technology, but the us will not find an alternative market with the same potential as China.

没有美国,中国会面对短期困难;

Without the us, China would face short-term difficulties;

没有中国,美国则失去驱动长期增长的推动力。”

Without China, the us loses the driver of long-term growth."

虽然中美都强调各自韧性和对方弱点,但学者成晓河指出,彼此是否存在误判令人担忧。

While China and the United States emphasize each other's resilience and each other's weaknesses, scholar cheng xiaohe said there are concerns about miscalculation.

“美国领导人可能认为中国经济处于脆弱期,所以展开极限施压;

"Us leaders may believe that China's economy is in a fragile period, so they are applying extreme pressure;

中国则可能认为美国处境脆弱,尤其特朗普快面对大选,解决不了贸易问题将降低他当选的机会。

China, for its part, may see the us as vulnerable, especially as Mr Trump faces an election in which failure to tackle trade will reduce his chances.

但这两方面可能都存在误判。”

But there may be miscalculations on both sides."

他认为,中美如果相互误判,贸易战将无可避免延续,甚至不排除从经济战逐步演变为热战,包括在台湾、南中国海等敏感问题上擦枪走火。

He believes that if China and the United States misjudge each other, the trade war will inevitably continue. He does not even rule out that the economic war will gradually turn into a hot war, including conflicts over Taiwan, the south China sea and other sensitive issues.

“中美还是找不到解决问题的方法和意愿……

"China and the us are still unable to find the means and will to solve the problem...

此时双方都表现出了打持久战的决心,也正准备迎接关系进一步全面恶化。”

This is a time when both sides are showing a determination to play a long game and are preparing for a further general deterioration of relations."

(记者是《联合早报》北京特派员)

(this reporter is the Beijing correspondent of lianhe zaobao)


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