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今年来境外流入A股资金规模达万亿级 三大因素决定不会“大进大出”

9月16日,国家外汇管理局副局长张新表示,当前我国股票和债券市场外资占比均偏低,随着全球主流市场指数相继纳入A股和人民币债券并逐步提高纳入权重,取消投资额度限制后,预计合格境外投资者将稳步、有序增持境内资产。

On September 16, deputy director of the state administration of foreign exchange new said that China's current low proportion of foreign capital stock and bond market, as the global mainstream successively into the a-share market index and RMB bonds and gradually increase in weight, cancel the investment quota restrictions, is expected to steadily qualified foreign investors, in order to increase domestic assets.

摩根士丹利华鑫证券首席经济学家章俊在接受《证券日报》记者采访时表示,目前依然处在外资流入的初始阶段,前期都是被动配置A股的资金流入,伴随着国际三大指数不断提升A股的纳入比例,会看到有更多主动资金将配置A股。

Morgan Stanley huaxin securities chief economist Steven zhang said in an interview with "securities journal" reporter, at present is still at the initial stage of foreign capital inflows, prophase are passive configuration a-share capital inflows, along with three index rising international a-share in proportion, will see more active funds will configure A shares.

国际三大指数提升A股权重

International three major indexes to increase A equity heavy

“随着全球主流指数相继纳入或者提高A股的权重,外资增持中国股票和债券的热情大增。

"With the inclusion or increase of a-shares in mainstream global indices, the enthusiasm of foreign investors to increase their holdings of Chinese stocks and bonds has increased.

作为世界较大的股票和债券市场,为国际资本提供了绝佳的投资地。

As the world's largest stock and bond market, it provides an excellent place for international capital to invest.

从今年来看,流入我国股票和债券市场的境外资金包括被动投资者和主动投资者,其投资规模有望超过万亿元。”

This year, the amount of foreign funds flowing into China's stock and bond markets, including passive and active investors, is expected to exceed one trillion yuan."

中国人民大学重阳金融研究院产业部副主任卞永祖对《证券日报》记者表示。

Bian yongzu, deputy director of the industry department of chongyang financial research institute at renmin university of China, told securities daily.

值得关注的是,A股纳入标普道琼斯指数方案顺利推进,9月23日开盘时将正式生效。

What is worth noting is that the a-share inclusion in the s&p dow Jones index is progressing smoothly and will be officially effective when the market opens on September 23.

继MSCI和富时罗素宣布将A股纳入其指数体系之后,又一个国际指数增配A股市场。

Following the announcement by MSCI and ftse Russell that a-shares will be included in their index system, an international index has been added to the a-share market.

此外,富时罗素第二步提升A股权重也将于9月23日生效。

In addition, the second move by ftse Russell to lift its A stake will take effect on September 23.

根据国金证券首席策略分析师李立峰预计,本次富时罗素和标普道琼斯带来的被动增量资金规模分别约280亿元、100亿元。

According to guo jin securities chief strategist li lifeng estimated that the amount of passive incremental funds brought by ftse Russell and s&p dow Jones are about 28 billion yuan and 10 billion yuan respectively.

“在目前全球经济承压和市场避险情绪上升的背景下,美债和日元资产交易过分拥挤,投资者在全球范围内寻找新的、有较高确定性的投资机会。

"With the current global economic stress and rising risk aversion in the market, trading in us treasuries and yen assets is overcrowded and investors are looking for new, more assured investment opportunities around the world.

A股市场背靠韧性较高的中国经济且经过调整之后的A股估值较为合理,因此将会受到海外投资者的更多关注。”

"The a-share market is backed by A resilient Chinese economy and the adjusted a-share valuation is reasonable, so it will receive more attention from overseas investors."

章俊表示。

Zhang jun said.

难以出现“大进大出”风险

Difficult to appear "big in big out" risk

有市场人士担心,外资大规模流入是否会提升A股市场风险?

Some market people worry about whether the massive inflow of foreign capital will enhance the risk of the a-share market?

张新指出,考虑到合格境外投资者多为长期投资者,预计资金流入相对平稳,不会出现“大进大出”的风险。

Zhang xin pointed out that given that qfii are mostly long-term investors, capital inflow is expected to be relatively stable and there will be no risk of "big in and big out".

在卞永祖看来,外资流入“大进大出”的风险相对较低,主要原因有以下几方面,首先,我国经济发展仍然保持稳定,质量在提升,外资投资我国资本市场存在多重机会,可以说是当前世界上为数不多的可以容纳大量资金投资的地方。

In BianYongZu view, foreign capital inflows "big into a" risk is relatively low, the main reason has the following several aspects, first of all, the economic development of our country still remain stable, quality in ascension, foreign investment in China's capital market has multiple opportunities, is the one of the few in the world can hold a large amount of capital investment.

其次,我国监管法律法规以及监管方式方法不断完善,资本市场改革也在加速推进,国内投资者文化也在成熟,减少了“大进大出”的诱因。

Secondly, China's regulatory laws and regulations as well as regulatory methods have been constantly improved, the reform of the capital market is also being accelerated, and the culture of domestic investors is also maturing, reducing the incentive for "big in and big out".

另外,我国通过开放自贸区等方式,不断积累资本开放的经验,也不断参与全球金融治理体系,加强跟其他国家的合作,都使得“大进大出”的风险在降低。

In addition, by opening up free trade zones and other means, China has continuously accumulated experience in capital liberalization, participated in the global financial governance system and strengthened cooperation with other countries, all of which have reduced the risk of "big import and big export".

“当然,金融全球化的发展也让风险的传染速度更快,境外的风吹草动也可能引发国内市场的波动,因此,加大对资金的监控力度仍然是监管部门的重要工作。”

"Of course, the development of financial globalization has also made risks spread faster, and turmoil abroad may also trigger fluctuations in the domestic market. Therefore, it is still an important task for regulators to strengthen the supervision of capital."

卞永祖说。

Bian yongzu said.

章俊表示,海外投资者在进入一个并不非常熟悉的市场,在选股策略上会寻找确定性收益,因此更多青睐金融、大消费、医疗等行业的大白马龙头股。

Zhang jun said that overseas investors are looking for certainty in stock selection strategies when they enter a market they are not very familiar with, so they prefer big white horse leading stocks in sectors such as finance, consumption and healthcare.

同时,鉴于进入A股的外资从属性上来讲大部分都是中长期机构资金,因此有利于改善A股投资者结构,推动A股投资风格转向价值投资。

At the same time, considering that most of the foreign investment into a-share is medium and long-term institutional capital in nature, it is conducive to improving the structure of a-share investors and promoting the transformation of a-share investment style to value investment.

进一步完善三方面措施

We will further improve measures in three areas

那么,国际指数纳A权重是否还会进一步提升?

Then, the international index A weight will be further improved?

卞永祖认为,随着中国金融开放的加速,以及中国经济在全球占比的提升,国际指数一定会继续提升A股的权重。

Bian yongzu believes that with the acceleration of China's financial opening and the increase of China's economic share in the world, the international index will definitely continue to increase the weight of a-shares.

“为了承接外资持续流入,A股市场还需完善以下措施。”

"In order to sustain the inflow of foreign capital, the a-share market still needs to improve the following measures."

卞永祖表示,首先,要加大对金融信息的监管力度。

Bian yongzu said, first, to strengthen the supervision of financial information.

要力保信息的公开透明,让虚假信息无处藏身。

We must ensure that information is open and transparent and that false information has no place to hide.

其次,进一步促进人民币国际化,加大国际金融监管合作。

Second, further promote the internationalization of the RMB and strengthen cooperation in international financial supervision.

一方面,互联互通的加快必然导致人民币国际化的加速;

On the one hand, the acceleration of connectivity will inevitably lead to the acceleration of RMB internationalization;

另一方面,我国在金融相关的法律法规方面还有较大提升空间,要加大同其他国家的相关合作,进一步降低我国金融犯罪率。

On the other hand, there is still room for improvement in China's laws and regulations related to finance. We should increase cooperation with other countries to further reduce China's financial crime rate.

第三,尽快补上我国金融中介机构的短板。

Third, as soon as possible to fill up the shortcomings of China's financial intermediaries.

金融中介提供的服务对于资本市场的发展具有十分重要的作用,尤其是评级机构、会计师事务所等机构发布的信息,可以引导着资金的流动,所以加快培育这些机构的发展,有利于我国资本市场的健康稳定发展。

Financial intermediary services play a very important role in the development of the capital market, especially the information released by rating agencies, accounting firms and other institutions can guide the flow of funds, so accelerating the development of these institutions is conducive to the healthy and stable development of China's capital market.


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