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黄奇帆:贸易战,要钱,还是要命?

近日,一篇题为“透彻!

A recent article titled "clarity!

黄奇帆最新重磅演讲:人家要的不是钱,是你的命”的文章刷爆了财经媒体的朋友圈,文章标题足够抢眼,而内容也是干货满满。

Huang qifan's latest blockbuster speech: what people want is not money, but your life "article maxed out the circle of friends of financial and economic media, the title of the article is eye-catching enough, and the content is also full of dry goods.

中国国际经济交流中心副理事长、原重庆市市长黄奇帆的这篇文章鞭辟入里,直击问题要害:美国的诉求不是钱能解决的!

This article of huang qifan, former mayor of chongqing and vice chairman of China international economic exchange center, strikes at the heart of the problem: the appeal of the United States is not money can solve!

不过话说回来,中国的命也不是那么好要的!

Then again, China's life is not that easy!

这本是一个相互高度依存的世界,共同发展才能让大家彼此活的更好。

This is a highly interdependent world. Common development enables us to live a better life together.

美国非要逆潮流而动,以命博命,实在不是明智之举。

It would be unwise for the us to buck the trend and risk its life.

而这一年多来波诡云谲的中美贸易摩擦,反复多变的局势,更让我们清醒的认识到中美贸易战背后的问题远远超出了关税所触及的范围,而未来几周美中在华盛顿所达成的任何协议或许也只是一个表面的过渡方案。

But the twists and turns of the past year and more have made it clear that the problems behind the trade war go far beyond tariffs, and that any agreement reached in Washington in the coming weeks may be only a superficial transition plan.

我们只有抓紧时间练好内功才是硬道理,综合国力永远是外交谈判最重要的筹码。

Only when we make the best use of time to develop our internal performance can we be relied on. Comprehensive national strength will always be the most important bargaining chip in diplomatic negotiations.

危机危机,危中有机!

Crisis crisis, crisis opportunity!

这一点,连在华的美国朋友也非常清楚。

Even our American friends in China know this very well.

David Blaire是中国日报社的一位美国籍专家,此前他是宏观经济和金融学的教授,曾在德国和俄罗斯的研究机构工作。

David Blaire is an American expert on China Daily. Previously, he was a professor of macroeconomics and finance, working at research institutes in Germany and Russia.

在他看来,美国对于华为、中兴等中国高科技企业的制裁恰恰未为这些企业的崛起创造了一个良好的契机。

In his view, U.S. sanctions against huawei, zte and other Chinese high-tech companies have not created a good opportunity for their rise.

在一个新兴行业,尤其是科技领域,客户对于产品的稳定需求是这个产业迅速发展的重要驱动力。

In an emerging industry, especially in the field of technology, stable customer demand for products is an important driver of the rapid development of this industry.

而在一个较为成熟的的科技市场,新企业想要崛起是非常困难的,这不仅需要大量的资金投入,还需要直面老牌科技企业的竞争。

However, in a relatively mature technology market, it is very difficult for new enterprises to rise up, which not only requires a large amount of capital investment, but also needs to face up to the competition of established technology enterprises.

虎口夺食,谈何容易!

It's easier said than done!

而美国一系列的对华企业制裁和关税政策恰恰为中国仍处在发展期的高科技企业打开了一个弯道超车的窗口期。

However, a series of us sanctions and tariff policies on Chinese enterprises have just opened a window for high-tech enterprises that are still in the process of development to overtake.

高通断供华为之后,华为立马发布了自己的麒麟海思芯片备胎计划,海思芯片一跃成为华为的核心技术。

After qualcomm cut off supply to huawei, huawei immediately released its own kirin hayes chip backup plan, and the hayes chip became huawei's core technology.

而本周四,华为在德国慕尼黑正式发布Mate 30系列5G手机,这是华为在今年7月发布首款5G手机Mate 205G后,第二代“真正意义上的5G手机”。

On Thursday, huawei officially launched Mate 30 series 5G phone in Munich, Germany, which is the second generation of "real 5G phone" after huawei released its first 5G phone Mate 205G in July.

华为消费者业务总裁余承东证实,华为Mate 30系列不会预装谷歌配套应用和服务。

Yu chengdong, President of huawei's consumer business, confirmed that huawei Mate 30 series will not be pre-installed with Google supporting applications and services.

为了打造无美供应链,华为也在积极展开自己的布局。

In order to build a non-american supply chain, huawei is also actively expanding its own layout.

David的想法和黄奇帆不谋而合。

David's idea coincides with huang qifan's.

在《新时代,中国开放新格局、新特征和中美贸易摩擦》的主题演讲中,黄老提到中国有5张牌反制贸易摩擦,而且其中的第一张就是市场,因为市场是王牌,这一点对一个企业如此,对一个地区、一个国家亦是如此。

In his keynote speech titled "new era, new pattern and characteristics of China's opening up and china-us trade frictions", huang Lao mentioned that China has five CARDS to counter trade frictions, and the first one is the market, because the market is the trump card, which is also true for an enterprise, a region and a country.

一个不容忽视的事实是中国每年芯片进口的花费已经超过原油。

One thing that cannot be ignored is the fact that China spends more on chip imports each year than it does on crude oil.

彭博的数据显示:2017年,中国进口了价值2600亿美元的芯片和价值1620亿美元的石油,而其中价值2000亿美元的芯片都是美国制造。

In 2017, China imported $260 billion worth of chips and $162 billion worth of oil, with $200 billion of those chips made in the U.S.

美国目前的政策绝对是“杀敌一千,自损八百”的行为。

The current policy of the United States is absolutely to kill one thousand enemies and injure eight hundred.

这也解释了为何美国美商务部在八月中旬决定再次推迟部分对华为的交易禁令。

That explains why the Commerce Department decided in mid-august to delay yet another partial ban on huawei.

高通和美国的一些企业已经发表声明要求不再封杀华为。

Qualcomm and some American companies have issued statements demanding that huawei not be blocked.

试想高通的50%芯片都卖给中国,而这50%里面有两成是华为购买的。

Imagine qualcomm sells 50% of its chips to China, and huawei buys 20% of that 50%.

对于一个芯片企业,突然失去如此大的市场份额,到底谁承受的压力更大还真不好说!

For a chip company, suddenly lost such a large market share, the pressure on the end is more difficult to say!

在芯片这样的全球产业链和供应链体系中,龙头老大几乎都是美国企业。

In global industrial chains and supply chains such as chips, almost all of them are American.

把这个产业链打散,最痛的是辛辛苦苦经营一二十年的美国龙头企业。

Breaking up the industry chain, the most painful is the hard work of 20 years of American leading enterprises.

而中国企业则更应该紧紧抓住这个窗口期,迅速补上短板。

And Chinese enterprise should seize this window period more firmly, fill up short board quickly.

中国历来有“独立自主,自力更生的”传统,这也是毛泽东思想的灵魂之一,贯穿于中国革命和建设的整个过程。

China has always had the tradition of "independence and self-reliance", which is also one of the soul of MAO zedong thought, throughout the whole process of China's revolution and construction.

当中国独立自主、自力更生时,中国拥有了原子弹、人造卫星、核潜艇、运十飞机、银河计算机等一大批为国立威的技术!

When China became independent and self-reliant, it possessed a large number of state-directed technologies such as atomic bombs, satellites, nuclear submarines, ten aircraft, and galactic computers.

它体现了中华民族自强不息、不屈不挠的民族精神,呈现了中国作风和中国气派,而这一次也不会例外,中国的“命”自己说了算!

It embodies the indomitable spirit of the Chinese nation and embodies the Chinese style and style.


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