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中国经济临三大威胁 除贸战外还有这2项?

在日本野村(Nomura)集团服务的著名美籍经济学家辜朝明(Richard Koo)认为,现今中国的经济增长,出现超前缓慢的情形,对于该国发展所面临的收入、人口及贸易战等三大威胁,将可能导致其经济萎缩时间更加延长。

Richard Koo, a prominent American economist who works for the Nomura group in Japan, argues that China's economic growth, which is now ahead of its time, is likely to shrink even longer because of the three major threats to the country's development: income, population and trade war.

9月19日,根据美媒“商业内幕”(Business Insider)旗下的“市场内幕”(Markets Insider)报导指出,在当日的一份报告中,台湾裔美国经济学家、日本最大的管理咨询与经济研究公司“野村综合研究所”(Nomura Research Institute)的首席经济学家辜朝明表示,尽管全球股市已稳定,及美中贸易谈判在中断2个月之后已经恢复,

On September 19, according to U.S. media "Business Insider" (Business Insider) 's "Insider" market (Markets) Insider reports that, in a report on the day of Taiwan's African American economists, Japan's largest management consulting and economic Research firm "Nomura Research Institute (Nomura Research Institute) chief economist Richard koo said that despite the global stock market has stabilized, and the u.s.-china trade negotiations in the interruption has been restored after 2 months,

可是中国的经济仍然面临几个来自于不同领域的麻烦。

But China's economy still faces problems in several different areas.

目前中国经济可说正处于几十年来最缓慢的增长水平。

China's economy is growing at its slowest pace in decades.

其第二季度的增长率只有6.2%,此数据是中国从开始有报告季度数据以来的最低增速了;

Its growth rate in the second quarter was just 6.2%, the slowest pace since China began reporting quarterly data.

而第三季度的增长率初步估计是6%至6.5%,这也是有史以来最糟糕的预测。

That compares with a preliminary estimate of 6-6.5 per cent growth in the third quarter, the worst forecast on record.

其实,中国的经济实力有很大一部分,来自于这个因素,与其它工业国家相比,中国可以提供更大规模的廉价劳动力。

In fact, a large part of China's economic strength comes from this factor, which allows it to provide a larger pool of cheap labor than other industrial countries.

可是辜朝明认为,中国增长减弱因素的三大威胁,将消除中国的制造业优势,导致重要的外国投资转移至其它国家。

But koo argues that the three main threats to China's weakening growth will eliminate China's manufacturing advantage and lead to the diversion of important foreign investment to other countries.

以下为辜朝明所说的三大主要威胁,及其如何削弱中国经济的原因:

Here are koo's top three threats, and why they are weakening China's economy:

一、“中等收入陷阱”

1. "middle-income trap"

辜朝明说,由于中国经济快速发展,致使工资相应上涨。

Koo said wages have risen in response to China's rapid economic growth.

“中等收入陷阱”危及了中国低成本劳动力市场。

The "middle-income trap" threatens China's low-cost Labour market.

因为制造业会为了寻找更便宜的国家,正从中国移往劳动力更加便宜的国家。

Manufacturing is moving from China to cheaper countries in search of cheaper labor.

以目前的工资水平而言,中国制造业的资本回报率,已经接近了越南与孟加拉等新兴制造业国家的水平。

At current wages, the return on capital in China's manufacturing sector is close to that of emerging manufacturing countries such as Vietnam and Bangladesh.

但由于美中贸易战,有可能加剧这种迁移趋势,其将给中国带来巨大的负面影响。

But the migration could be exacerbated by the us-china trade war, which would have a huge negative impact on China.

辜朝明分析称,这意味着,这个问题又加上中国制造的产品,其进入美国及其他市场时所面临的障碍,将致使在中国境内的投资持续下滑。

That means, according to koo, that the problem, coupled with barriers to chinese-made goods entering the U.S. and other markets, will lead to a continued decline in investment in China.

二、自2032年起,中国人口将会开始净减少

From 2032, China's population will begin to decline on a net basis

辜朝明指出,据人口统计数据显示,中国的劳动人口自2010年代初开始,就已经呈现萎缩情形。

Koo noted that China's labor force has been shrinking since the early 2010s, according to demographic data.

根据这个趋势预计,最快从2032年起,中国人口将会开始净减少。

Based on this trend, China's population is expected to begin a net decline as soon as 2032.

“对中国这样一个经济实力强大的国家而言,中等收入陷阱及迫近的人口下降一起出现,这是“极为罕见”的情况。

"It is' extremely rare 'for a country as economically powerful as China to have a middle-income trap combined with an impending population decline.

光是这2个因素,就会对任何国家造成艰难的挑战;

These two factors alone pose difficult challenges for any country;

而且中国还必须应付与美国的贸易战问题。”

And China has to deal with a trade war with the United States."

“在所预计的衰退开始之前的13年,中国就该专注在发展自己的知识产权上,甚至要远离世界工厂的地位。”

"Thirteen years before the expected recession begins, China should focus on developing its own intellectual property, even away from being the workshop of the world."

三、贸易战

Iii. Trade war

目前美中贸易战已经进入第二年。

The trade war is now in its second year.

现今除了推迟加征关税,及承诺继续谈判之外,美中双方于解决问题方面,并未取得多大进展。

So far, the two sides have made little progress in resolving the issue beyond postponing tariffs and promising to continue negotiations.

辜朝明表示,伴随着《中国制造2025》计划,中国可能已过快地将重点从外国投资转向为国内创新,可是贸易战将可能会损害长久以来,推动中国经济发展的制造产业。

Koo said China may have shifted its focus from foreign investment to domestic innovation too quickly with the made in China 2025 plan, but a trade war could hurt the manufacturing industry that has long powered the Chinese economy.

“目前中国经济仍严重依赖着外国企业,不只是在制造技术上,也包括海外营销与销路方面。

"The Chinese economy is still heavily dependent on foreign companies, not just in manufacturing technology, but also in marketing and sales overseas.

基于这个理由,中国政府本应要更好对待外国资本,而并非像他们过去所做的那样。”

For this reason, the Chinese government should have treated foreign capital better than they did in the past."

“若中国希望恢复且保持其外国投资完好无损,则应该在2020年美国大选之前,就与川普(特朗普)总统达成贸易协议。

"If China wants to recover and keep its foreign investment intact, it should reach a trade deal with President trump before the 2020 U.S. election.

即使是川普败选,要将地缘政治和贸易问题分开,也是不太可能的事。”

Even if trump loses, it is unlikely to separate geopolitics from trade."


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